翻译案例:从消费数据看美国股市
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关注美国圣诞消费数据和四季度GDP增速给美股带来的提振。我们注意到,美国股市和美元汇率自金融危机以来的负相关开始变得不明显。今年前11个月,美元和美股走势在70%的交易日是相反的。但12月以来美元的反弹,一部分是来源于投资者对欧洲和新兴市场主权债券的担忧,但重要的是美国经济复苏的趋势进一步得到确立,美元价值得到提升。在此背景下,美国股市并不总是随着美元上涨而下滑,12月美元和股市走势仅仅在50%的交易日是相反的。因此,未来美国股市的走势将更多回归经济基本面的支撑。短期内,圣诞消费和四季度GDP增速将是比较关键的因素。我们认为在经济复苏预期不断增强和就业情况趋于稳定的大背景下,节日消费有望好于以前的悲观预期,四季度GDP增长创今年新高,明年第一季度可望出现劳动力市场从萎缩到平稳的变化拐点,美国股市有望在2010年第一季度延续上涨行情。
译文:
The consumption data for the Christmas and growth of GDP for the fourth quarter have injected vigor to the US stock market. We notice that the negative correlation between the US stock market and dollar exchange rate has begun not very obvious since the financial crisis. During the first 11 months of this year, the dollar rate went against the stock market in 70% of trading days. The rebound of US dollars as of December is partly due to the investors’ worry about the sovereignty bonds of the European and the emerging markets. Nevertheless, the more important thing is that the trend of revival for the American economy has been further confirmed and the US dollar value has been increased. Under the background, the US market does not always slide with the hike of US dollars, as the dollars went against the stock market in 50% of the trading days of December. Therefore the trend of US stock market is more bolstered by the economy. The Christmas consumption and the growth of GDP for the fourth quarter will remain the key factor recently. We forecast that amid the increasing expectation of economic recovery and growingly stable job market, the holiday consumption may beat the pessimistic expectation and the GDP growth for the fourth quarter will hit a new year high. The labor market may see a turning point from squeeze to stability and the US stock market is forecast to continue the hike in the first quarter of 2010.
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